https://tredey.com/ A daily log of trades, lessons, and probabilities en-us Mon, 31 Aug 2026 10:36:16 GMT https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-31-market-outlook/ https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-31-market-outlook/ 2026-08-31 SPX pivots near 7,712 as breadth holds firm at 75% above 50d MA, XLK and XLE pace sector leadership, and the FOMC cut consensus cedes focus to the September 17-18 meeting. Key levels, sector rotation, and risks ahead. https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-28-market-outlook/ https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-28-market-outlook/ 2026-08-28 SPX 7,730.99 (+0.72%) with breadth at 100% — extreme. VIX 14.48, tech led (XLK +3.01% 5d), energy stalled (XLE -2.29%). Bull regime intact ahead of September catalysts. https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-27-market-outlook/ https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-27-market-outlook/ 2026-08-27 SPX oscillates near 7,675 as the bull trend persists with VIX at 14.94. Breadth at 75%, sector rotation favors tech leadership while defensives lag. Elevated forward risk priced into the term structure warrants measured exposure. https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-26-market-outlook/ https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-26-market-outlook/ 2026-08-26 SPY $765.91, QQQ $710.72 (still below 50-day MA $713.14), IWM $299.23. VIX 15.71. Breadth steady at 75%. QQQ 5d recovered from -3.23% to -0.95%. XLE 5d turned from +0.85% to -2.54%. https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-25-market-outlook/ https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-25-market-outlook/ 2026-08-25 SPY $763.47, QQQ $706.32 (below 50-day MA), IWM $297.97. VIX 15.86. Breadth slipped from 100% to 75%. XLE +8.14% 20d. XLK -5.40% 5d. XLI -2.29% 20d. https://tredey.com/trade-log/2026-08-24-be-long-call-butterfly/ https://tredey.com/trade-log/2026-08-24-be-long-call-butterfly/ 2026-08-24 Opened a BE Jan 15 2027 260/280/300 long call butterfly (144 DTE), a defined-risk, far-OTM call-only structure with reward:risk 31:1. Net debit $0.625/share ($62.50/contract). Max profit $1,937.50/contract at BE = $280; max loss $62.50. 1-contract sizing. IV ~94% (high — reflects BE's jump-risk pricing). PoP (any profit, drift-implied) ~15%; PoP (max profit zone, $260.62-$299.38) ~9.6%. BE spot $204.02. https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-24-market-outlook/ https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-24-market-outlook/ 2026-08-24 SPY $765.72, QQQ $713.44, IWM $299.96. VIX 15.91. Breadth 100% (vs 75% Fri). XLE +6.74%, XLV +7.41% 20d. XLK -3.53% 5d. Post-Jackson Hole: Fed pivot holds. https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-21-market-outlook/ https://tredey.com/forecasts/2026-08-21-market-outlook/ 2026-08-21 SPY $762.60, QQQ $710.93, IWM $297.67. VIX 15.72 (term ratio 0.825). Breadth pulled back from 100% to 75% above 50d MA. XLE +7.36% on the 20-day, still leading all sectors. XLV +6.78%. XLK worst 5-day sector at -4.02%. Jackson Hole Day — Fed Chair keynote expected Friday afternoon. https://tredey.com/playbook/2026-08-20-adjustment-rules/ https://tredey.com/playbook/2026-08-20-adjustment-rules/ 2026-08-20 The judgment framework for managing open positions: when to roll a spread, when to hedge with a long option, when to hold through volatility, and when to accept the loss and move on. https://tredey.com/education/2026-08-20-correlation-and-portfolio-construction/ https://tredey.com/education/2026-08-20-correlation-and-portfolio-construction/ 2026-08-20 How correlated positions affect total portfolio risk, the difference between name-level and market-level correlation, and the journal's rules for basket exposure and concentration limits. https://tredey.com/strategies/2026-08-20-debit-vertical-spread/ https://tredey.com/strategies/2026-08-20-debit-vertical-spread/ 2026-08-20 Anatomy of a debit vertical spread: lower max-loss than a long call, capped upside, and the trade-off between risk reduction and profit potential. When the spread fits a directional thesis better than a single-leg long option. https://tredey.com/strategies/2026-08-20-diagonal-spread/ https://tredey.com/strategies/2026-08-20-diagonal-spread/ 2026-08-20 Anatomy of a diagonal spread: long option at a longer expiration, short option at a shorter expiration, the structure's time-distributed payoff, and when the diagonal fits better than a vertical or a calendar. https://tredey.com/playbook/2026-08-20-edge-sources/ https://tredey.com/playbook/2026-08-20-edge-sources/ 2026-08-20 The structural, statistical, and informational edges that the journal's playbook exploits — why each exists, how the journal identifies them, and how the edge degrades over time. https://tredey.com/playbook/2026-08-20-exit-discipline/ https://tredey.com/playbook/2026-08-20-exit-discipline/ 2026-08-20 The discipline of closing positions at the right time: the take-profit rule, the stop-loss rule, the early-close rules, and the most common reasons traders exit too early or too late. https://tredey.com/education/2026-08-20-expected-value/ https://tredey.com/education/2026-08-20-expected-value/ 2026-08-20 The expected value formula for options trades, how the journal calculates probability of profit, the difference between theoretical and realized expected value, and why a positive EV is necessary but not sufficient. https://tredey.com/education/2026-08-20-greeks-explained/ https://tredey.com/education/2026-08-20-greeks-explained/ 2026-08-20 The five option greeks: delta, gamma, theta, vega, rho — what each measures, how they interact in a position, and the greeks the journal monitors at entry and during the life of the position. https://tredey.com/education/2026-08-20-implied-volatility/ https://tredey.com/education/2026-08-20-implied-volatility/ 2026-08-20 What implied volatility is, how it differs from realized volatility, why the option's price is dominated by IV rather than the underlying's expected move, and how the journal uses IV rank to choose structures. https://tredey.com/strategies/2026-08-20-iron-butterfly/ https://tredey.com/strategies/2026-08-20-iron-butterfly/ 2026-08-20 Anatomy of an iron butterfly: short straddle with protective wings, very high probability of profit, defined risk, and the trade-off between premium collected and the cost of being wrong. When the structure fits a low-volatility regime better than an iron condor. https://tredey.com/playbook/2026-08-20-journal-discipline/ https://tredey.com/playbook/2026-08-20-journal-discipline/ 2026-08-20 How the journal audits its own process: position-level review, weekly recap, monthly methodology audit, and the role of the trade log in catching pattern errors before they cost the book. https://tredey.com/playbook/2026-08-20-journaling-cadence/ https://tredey.com/playbook/2026-08-20-journaling-cadence/ 2026-08-20 The four cadences of the journal's process discipline: the daily note, the weekly recap, the monthly methodology audit, and the quarterly strategic review. The four together produce the playbook's living-document quality.